What I'm Watching: QQQ on Its 200-Day, Microsoft Below Its 50-Day, and Equal Weight Near a High
What I'm Watching · November 3, 2026
Sunday I said we were oversold enough to bounce, and that I'd be watching the bounce carefully. It lasted about an hour. The S&P opened higher, peaked in the first hour and finished down 0.51%, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4%. Underneath, it was the same split we've seen for two weeks: 69% of S&P stocks rose and 8 of 11 sectors were green. Here are the three charts I'm keeping on my screen. They're through Monday's close, so treat the levels as the map, not the score.
QQQ Broke 690 and Is Sitting on the 200-Day
QQQ fell 1.36% to 681.09 after reaching 699.43 early in the session. It closed below its lower Bollinger Band and just above its 200-day (679.82), which sits at the top of the demand zone near 662 to 680.
Hans's take: Last week I said 690 is where I'd get defensive. Above 700 is rotation. Below 690 is the correlation zone, where even the winners get sold, and we're in it now. Hold 680 and this can still be a messy bottom. Lose it, and 662 to 665 is the next stop.
Microsoft Broke Its 50-Day
Microsoft fell 2.83% to 507.12, closing below its 50-day (513.39) for the first time since late July. The August breakout area near 470 is the next big support.
Hans's take: Sunday I said if Microsoft broke the 50-day, the selling had spread to the last safe haven in tech. It just did. That's the most important chart I'm looking at.
Equal Weight Is Near a New High
SPY fell 0.48% to 752.10, below the rising trendline it broke on Friday. The equal-weight S&P (RSP) rose to 219.98, above the 217-to-219 breakout area and within a few dollars of its August high (222.60).
Hans's take: This is the strangest market I've seen in a while. The average stock is near a high, and the cap-weighted index is breaking down. Either the giants catch up to the average stock, or the average stock gets dragged down with them. I'm watching QQQ 680 to find out which.
Put the three together: the two lines I flagged both broke, QQQ is on its 200-day, and the average stock is still fine. That last part is what can stop this from snowballing.
Until QQQ gets back above 690, I'm more defensive, not less: hedges on, smaller sizes, and selling premium into any bounce rather than buying it. With the election results landing tonight and AMD reporting after the close, I'd keep sizes small and let the results come out first.
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Trade smart, stay hedged. — Hans
This material is for educational and informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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