“Et tu, Jerome. Et tu…” – said the market bear.
Now, I have been short term bullish as you all know from previous letters. But how long this rally goes is anybody’s guess – I’m targetting the August highs, but possibly 4550 if the market really wants to get jiggy. I’m a big fan of 6-8 month protection with mid-term vols coming off so nicely this year to levels we haven’t seen since 2021. On the one hand, lower vols mean less concern, which means stocks continue higher. The VIX futures curve is most certainly on bullish stock footing. On the other hand, the market may be getting expensive as this bear and FOMO squeeze unfolds. At 4200 we’re going to be pulling forward a lot of good vibes. The consumer might be living on borrowed time (and $). Stick these in your back pocket for when you need a good mic-drop bearish argument:
Money supply
Until next time,
May your coffees and option trades be less scalding (ok, I’m still working on this…)
Hans Albrecht
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